Description

Van Vugt identified risk factors for mortality of a patient with cirrhosis who is waiting for a liver transplant. The authors are from Erasmus MC University, Leiden University, and the University of Groningen in The Netherlands.


Patient selection: adult with cirrhosis on the transplant waiting list

 

Outcome: 3-month mortality

 

Parameters:

(1) MELD score, from 5 to 50

(2) sarcopenia (skeletal muscle index for males with BMI < 25: < 43 square cm per meter squared; for males with BMI >= 35: < 53 square cm per meter squared; for females: < 41 square cm per meter squared)

(3) hepatic encephalopathy before listing

(4) age in years (from 15 to 70 years)

 

points for age from 15 to 70 years =

= (0.42181818 * (age)) - 6.32726

 

points for MELD from 5 to 50=

= (2.22*(MELD))-11.1

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

sarcopenia

absent

0

 

present

8.3

hepatic encephalopathy

absent

0

 

present

14

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 145.5

• The higher the score the greater the mortality rate.

 

Score

3-Month Mortality

< 23.2

0

23.2 to 121.5

(0.3196* (score)) - 7.836

> 121.5

> 30%

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.85.


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