Sargut et al reported a model for predicting patients undergoing heart transplant. This can help to identify a patient who may suffer graft failure. The authors are from the German Heart Center Berlin, Paulinenkrankenhaus Berlin, ChariteUniversitatsmedizin Berlin, FreieUniversitat Berlin and Humboldt Universitatzu Berlin.
CABDES is an acronym for coronary artery disease, donor age, biventricular assist device, diabetes mellitus, eGFR and sex.
Parameters:
(1) coronary artery disease
(2) donor age
(3) biventricular assist device (BVAD)
(4) diabetes mellitus
(5) eGFR in mL per min
(6) sex
Parameter
Finding
Points
coronary artery disease
no
0
yes
45
donor age
< 30 years
0
30 to 50 years
36.6
> 50 years
81.2
BVAD
no
0
yes
55.3
diabetes mellitus
no
0
yes
32.2
eGFR
> 53 mL/min
0
33 to 53 mL/min
56.4
< 33 mL/min
100
sex
female
0
male
26
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 339.7
value of X =
= (0.01354 * (score)) - 2.473
probability of 1-year graft failure =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.69.
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