Renfro et al devleoped a nomogram for predicting 90-day mortality in a patient with metastatic colorectal carcinoma. The authors are from multiple institutions from around the world.
Patient selection: metastatic colorectal carcinoma
Outcome: 90-day mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 10 to 90
(2) body mass index (BMI). from 10 to 65 mg per square meter
(3) ECOG performance status
(4) BRAF status (wild type versus mutant)
(5) number of metastases
(6) total serum bilirubin, from 0 to 26 mg/dL
(7) white blood cell count in 10^9/L, from 0 to 100
(8) absolute neutrophil count in 10^9/L, from 0 to 70
(9) hemoglobin in g/dL
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
performance status |
0 |
0 |
|
|
1 |
10.4 |
|
|
2 to 4 |
22.6 |
|
BRAF status |
wild type |
0 |
|
|
mutant |
19.5 |
|
number of metastases |
1 |
0 |
|
|
2 |
3 |
|
|
3 |
7.5 |
|
|
4 or more |
12 |
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
white blood cell count |
0 to 10 |
(2.13*(WBC)) |
|
|
10 to 20 |
(0.44*(WBC)) + 16.9 |
|
|
20 to 100 |
(0.4175*(WBC)) + 17.35 |
|
absolute neutrophil count |
|
1.42857 * (ANC) |
Age in years
|
Age in years |
Points |
|
10 to 50 years |
(0.171 * (age in years)) - 1.69 |
|
50 to 90 years |
(0.007143*((age)^2))-(0.444*(age))+10.97 |
BMI
|
BMI |
Points |
|
10 to 35 |
(0.03071*((BMI)^2))-(2.25*(BMI))+45.15 |
|
35 to 65 |
(-0.1364*(BMI))+8.95 |
Total serum bilirubin
|
Total Serum Bilirubin |
Points |
|
0 to 2 |
(6.1*(bilirubin)) |
|
2 to 26 |
(0.854167*(bilirubin))+10.49167 |
Hemoglobin
|
Hemoglobin |
Points |
|
8 to 13 g/dL |
(0.2214*((hemoglobin)^2))-(6.45*(hemoglobin))+46 |
|
13 to 20 g/dL |
(1.423*(hemoglobin))-18.74 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 9 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 309.4
• The higher the score the worse the 90-day survival.
|
Total Score |
90-Day Mortality |
|
< 45 |
< 1% |
|
45 to 70.5 |
(0.15686 * (score)) - 6.0588 |
|
70.5 to 122 |
(0.01315 * ((score)^2)) - (1.442 * (points)) + 39.8 |
|
122 to 161 |
(-0.01661 * ((score)^2))+ (5.6 * (score)) - 376.2 |
|
> 161 |
> 95% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.77.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general
