Pan et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of deep vein thrombosis in the lower extremities within 14 days of an acute stroke. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University in Suzhou, China.
Patient selection: acute stroke
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years
(2) sex
(3) stroke type
(4) grade of muscle strength in legs using MRC scale from 0 to 5
(5) malignancy
(6) serum albumin in g/L
(7) plasma D-dimer in mg/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 65 years
0
>= 65 years
6.4
sex
male
0
female
11.5
stroke
ischemic
0
hemorrhagic
14.8
muscle strength
< 3
12.2
>= 3
0
malignancy
no
0
yes
14.7
serum albumin
< 40 g/L
100
40 to 55 g/L
92.4
> 55 g/L
100
D-dimer
<= 0.5 mg/L
0
> 0.5 mg/L
21.7
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 181.4
value of X =
= (0.05926 * (score)) - 9.381
probability of deep vein thrombosis within the first 14 day =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.76.
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