Description

Ma et al reported a nomogram for predicting survival of a patient with a left-sided (from the patient's viewpoint) pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The authors are from Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, South China University of Technology, Shantou University, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Zhejiang University and Guangzhou Medical University.


Patient selection: left-sided pancreatic adenocarcinoma (involving body or tail)

 

Parameters:

(1) serum CA19-9 in U/mL

(2) surgical margin (R0 vs R1)

(3) histologic differentiation

(4) lymph node metastases

(5) postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

serum CA19-9

< 312 U/mL

0

 

>= 312 U/mL

64

surgical margin

R0

0

 

R1

100

differentiation

well-differentiated

0

 

moderately differentiated

26

 

poorly-differentiated

63

lymph node metastases

no

0

 

yes

20

chemotherapy

yes

0

 

no

42

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 289

 

value of X =

= (-0.0001333 * ((score)^2)) - (0.02026 * (score)) + 1.405

 

probability of 2-year survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.82 to the training and 0.68 for the validation cohorts.


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