Luo et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of bleeding varices in a cirrhotic patient. This is based on radiomics and other clinical data without the need for endoscopy. The authors are from Chongqing Medical University in China.
Patient selection: cirrhosis
Parameters:
(1) radiomics score, from -1.8 to -0.5
(2) portal vein thrombosis
(3) plasma fibrinogen in g/L, from 0.5 to 6.5
(4) serum albumin in g/L, from 18 to 48
(5) serum AST in U/L, from 0 to 350
(6) spleen thickness in mm, from 20 to 80
points for radiomics score =
= (19.3846 * (radiomics score)) + 34.8923
points for fibrinogen =
= 25.2417 - (3.833 * (fibrinogen))
points for albumin =
= 34.24 - (0.7133 * (albumin))
points for AST =
= 100 - (0.2857143 * (AST))
points for spleen thickness =
= (0.245 * (thickness)) - 4.9
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
portal vein thrombosis
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
9.1
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• miinimum score: 0
• maximum score: 193.6
value of X =
= (0.2122 * (score)) - 29.85
risk of variceal bleeding =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) ^ X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.93 in the training and 0.91 in the validation cohorts.
