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Description

Liu et al reported a nomogram for identifying a patient with acute cholangitis who has sepsis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Xi'An Jiaotong University and multiple hospitals in China.


Patient selection: adult with acute cholangitis

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years, from 20 to 100

(2) ventilator support time, units not given, presumed hours, from 0 to 240

(3) diabetes

(4) coagulopathy

(5) systolic blood pressure

 

points for age =

= (1.1325 * (age)) - 22.65

 

points for ventilator support time =

= (0.19958 * (hours))

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

diabetes

no

0

 

yes

100

coagulopathy

no

0

 

yes

44.8

systolic blood pressure

normal (90-140 mm Hg)

0

 

abnormal (< 90 or > 140)

20.1

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 303.4

 

value of X =

= (0.02197 * (score)) - 2.321

 

probability of sepsis =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC is 0.70 for the training and 0.65 for the validation sets.


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