Nomogram of Liu et al for Predicting Diabetes in a Patient with Chronic Pancreatitis

Description

Liu et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of diabetes mellitus in a patient with chronic pancreatitis. The authors are from the Second Military Medical University, Shanghai Jiatong University, Zhejiang University and Southeast University Nanjing in China.

Patient selection: chronic pancreatitis

Parameters:

(1) age group

(2) biliary stricture

(3) steatorrhea

(4) main pancreatic duct morphology

Parameter	Finding	Points
age group	pediatric	0
	adult	100
biliary stricture	no	0
	yes	70.2
steatorrhea	no	0
	yes	53
main pancreatic duct	stone only	0
	stenosis only	6.2
	stenosis and stone	12.3
	complex changes	19.2

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 242.4

Total Score	5-Year Incidence
< 117	< 10%
117 to 242.4	(0.0000185 * ((score)^2)) - (0.002924 * (score)) + 0.1886

Total Score	10-Year Incidence
< 76.8	< 10%
76.8 to 242.4	(0.00001551 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0005547 * (score)) + 0.04657

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.67.

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Nomogram of Liu et al for Predicting Diabetes in a Patient with Chronic Pancreatitis

Description

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