Description

Lian et al evaluated women with a breast discharge for intraductal neoplasms using ductoscopy. Certain findings can help to identify a woman who may have a breast cancer. The authors are from Guangdong Women and Children Hospital of Jinan University in the People's Republic of China.


Patient selection: woman with a breast discharge

 

Parameters:

(1) bloody discharge

(2) location as branch of the ductal system

(3) appearance of the duct wall

(4) surface of the duct wall

(5) ducal wall

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

bloody discharge

no

0

 

yes

50.9

location

less than II branch

0

 

II branch or greater

65.9

appearance

regular

0

 

irregular

100

surface

smooth

0

 

rough

48.7

ductal wall

normal

0

 

abnormal

74.5

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 340.1

The higher the score the greater the risk of malignancy.

 

probability of malignancy =

= (0.000005941 * ((score)^2)) - (0.00042473 * (score)) + 0.03945

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve is 0.81 in the training set and 0.74 in the validation set.


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