Li et al reported a nomogram for predicting new osteoporotic vertebral fractures after vertebral augmentation of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures.
The authors are from People's Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Ningxia Medical University, and Sichuan University in China.
Patient selection: status post vertebral augmentation of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) dosage of bone cement in mL
(3) anti-osteoporosis treatment
(4) bone cement dispersion
(5) contact with vertebral body endplate
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 60 years
0
60 to 70 years
50
70 to 80 years
61.9
> 80 years
98
dose of bone cement
< 3 mL
38.6
3 to 4 mL
44.6
4 to 4.5 mL
0
> 4.5 mL
92.4
anti-osteoporosis therapy
no
100
yes
0
bone cement dispersion
good
0
bad
33.4
contact with endplate
no
96.5
yes
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 473.7
value of X =
= (0.02277 * (score)) - 7.468
probability of refracture =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.88 in the derivation and 0.87 in the validation cohorts.
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