Li et al reported a nomogram for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in a patient with acute pancreatitis. The authors are from Peking Union Medical College, Zhejiang University, Harbin Medical University, Sichuan University and affiliated hospitals in China.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) heart rate in beats per minute, from 50 to 170
(2) respiratory rate in breaths per minute, from10 to 45
(3) serum calcium in mmol/L, from 1.0 to 3.6
(4) serum BUN (urea) in mmol/L, from 0 to 40
points for heart rate =
= (0.833 * (heart rate)) - 41.667
points for respiratory rate =
= (1.82 * (respiratory rate)) - 18.2
points for serum calcium =
= 114.688 - (31.858 * (calcium))
points for serum urea =
= 2 * (urea)
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 326.67
probability of ARDS =
= (0.0088 * (score)) - 0.7482
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts.
