Lang et al developed a nomogram for predicting the 10-year disease-specific death rate for a patient with papillary thyroid carcinoma. The authors are from the University of Hong Kong and Seoul National University.
Patient selection: papillary thyroid carcinoma
Outcome: 10-year disease-specific death rate
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) size of the tumor in cm
(3) extension beyond the thyroid
(4) lymph node metastasis (N status)
(5) distant metastasis (M status)
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
age in years |
< 45 years |
0 |
|
|
45 to 65 years |
11 |
|
|
> 65 years |
21 |
|
size in cm |
< 2 cm |
0 |
|
|
2 to 4 cm |
3 |
|
|
> 4 cm |
8 |
|
extrathyroid extension |
No |
0 |
|
|
Yes |
8 |
|
N status |
N0 or Nx |
0 |
|
|
N1a |
2 |
|
|
N1b |
11 |
|
distant metastasis |
No |
0 |
|
|
Yes |
8 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 56
• The higher the score the greater the 10-year disease-specific mortality rate.
• With the highest score (56) the disease-specific mortality rate is 67%.
|
Score |
10-year disease-specific mortality |
|
< 12 |
< 0.3% |
|
12 to 28 |
(0.01082 * ((points)^2)) – (0.2709 * (points)) + 2.047 |
|
28 to 56 |
(0.08012 * ((points)^2)) – (4.391 * (points)) + 63.55 |
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general, Endocrinology
