Kim et al developed a model for predicting ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo transfer. The authors are from Seoul National University in Korea.
Patient selection: in vitro fertilization followed by embryo transfer at 14 days post-oocyte pick-up
Parameters:
(1) age of the mother from 22 to 46
(2) serum HCG in IU/L from 0 to 700
X =
= (0.02 * (HCG)) - (0.15 * (age)) + 2.60
probability of ongoing pregnancy =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The authors claim an area under the ROC curve of 0.975.
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