Nomogram of Kattan et al for Preoperative Prediction of Biochemical Progression at 5 Years in Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer Using Interleukin-6 Soluble Receptor and Transforming Growth Factor B

Description

Kattan et al developed a nomogram for predicting biochemical progression at 5 years in clinically localized prostate cancer based on preoperative variables. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive therapy and monitoring. The authors are from Baylor College of Medicine and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.

Patient selection: localized prostate cancer (clinical T1c, T2 or T3a)

Parameters:

(1) preoperative PSA in ng/mL

(2) primary Gleason grade on the prostate biopsy

(3) secondary Gleason grade on the prostate biopsy

(4) clinical stage

(5) preoperative interleukin-6 soluble receptor (IL6 SR) in ng/mL

(6) preoperative transforming growth factor beta1 (TGF beta1) in ng/mL

Primary Gleason Grade	Points
2	0
3	1
1	2
4	18
5	38

Secondary Gleason Grade	Points
1	0
2	1
3	3
4	13
5	24

Clinical Stage	Points
T2a	0
T2c	1
T3a	2
T1c	4
T2b	8

Serum PSA in ng/mL	Points
0.2	0
15	9
25	16
50	26
100	37

This data can be approximated in JMP as:

points for PSA =

= (-0.00319 * ((PSA)^2)) + (0.6896556 * (PSA)) - 0.115984

IL6 SR in ng/mL	Points
5	0
10	8
15	17
20	26
25	35
30	43
35	51
40	60
45	68
50	77

This data can be approximated in JMP as:

points for IL6 SR =

= (1.710303 * (IL6 SR)) - 8.5333

TGF beta1 in ng/mL	Points
0.5	0
1	19
2	38
3	50
4	58
5	65
6	70
7	74
8	78
9	81
10	84
11	86
12	90
13	92
14	94
17	99

This data can be approximated in JMP as:

points for TGF beta1 from 0.5 to 4.0 =

= ((1.5382514 * ((TGF)^3)) - (14.61633 * ((TGF)^2)) + (54.1777 * (TGF)) - 23.14786

points for TGF beta1 from 4.0 to 17 =

= ((0.0101831 * ((TGF)^3)) - (0.481817 * ((TGF)^2)) + (9.4378323 * (TGF)) + 27.9853

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)

Score	Probability of Being Biochemical Progression Free at 60 Months
< 61	> 99%
61 - 123	((-0.000064 * ((points)^3)) + (0.011702 * ((points)^2)) - (0.771897 * (points)) + 117.0784) / 100
123 - 183	((0.0005283 * ((points)^3)) - (0.2368 * ((points)^2)) + (33.567766 * (points)) - 1449.617) / 100
> 183	< 1%

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Nomogram of Kattan et al for Preoperative Prediction of Biochemical Progression at 5 Years in Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer Using Interleukin-6 Soluble Receptor and Transforming Growth Factor B

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