Nomogram of Jiang et al for Predicting End-Stage Renal Disease in a Patient with Biopsy-Proven Diabetic Nephropathy

Description

Jiang et al reported a model for predicting renal survival (end-stage renal disease) for a patient with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine and Peking University Health Science Center in Beijing.

Patent selection: biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy

Parameters:

(1) urine protein excretion in g per 24 hours

(2) stage of chronic kidney disease

(3) glomerular hyalinosis

(4) extracapillary hypercellularity (EXHC)

Parameter	Finding	Points
urine protein excretion	< 1 g per 24 hours	0
	1 to 3.4 g per 24 hours	7.4
	>= 3.5 g per 24 hours	10
stage of CKD	Stage 1	0
	Stage 2	1.9
	Stage 3a	2.1
	Stage 3b	4.9
	Stage 4	6.9
glomerular hyalinosis	no	0
	yes	7.8
EXHC	no	0
	yes	4.2

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 28.9

value of X =

= (-0.008585 * ((score)^2)) - (0.05976 * (score)) + 2.86

probability of 5-year renal survival (end-stage renal disease) =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.

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