Patient selection: surgery for colorectal cancer
Outcome: intestinal complications within 30 days of surgery (obstruction, leakage, bleeding or peritonitis)
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) history of abdominal surgery
(3) preoperative obstruction or perforation
(4) TNM stage
(5) hemoglobin level in g/L
(6) prognostic nutritional index of Nozoe et al (PNI, see Tokunaga et al)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
sex
|
female
|
0
|
|
|
male
|
45.8
|
|
history of abdominal surgery
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
39.4
|
|
preoperative obstruction or perforation
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
92
|
|
TNM stage
|
I
|
0
|
|
|
II
|
5.2
|
|
|
III
|
15.8
|
|
|
IV
|
41.4
|
|
hemoglobin
|
>= 110 g/L
|
0
|
|
|
< 110 g/L
|
26.7
|
|
PNI
|
>= 45
|
0
|
|
|
35 - 45
|
47
|
|
|
< 35
|
100
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 345.3
• The higher the score the greater the risk of a GI complication.
value of X =
= (0.01585 * (score)) - 4.038
probability of a GI complication =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.
