 ### Description

Imani et al developed a nomogram for predicting the chances of a live birth in an infertile woman who is normogonadotropic and oligoamenorrheic and who has received clomiphene citrate. This can help inform the patient and family of the likelihood of successful ovulation and delivery. The authors are from Erasmus University in Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Patient selection: infertile woman with normal FSH levels

Parameters (with data limits):

(1) body mass index in kg per square meter, BMI (from 0 to 12)

(2) free androgen index, FAI (from 0 to 12)

(3) oligomenorrhea vs amenorrhea

(4) age in years (from 20 to 40)

Steps:

(1) Determine chance of ovulation based on FAI, BMI and oligo/a-menorrhea

(2) Determine chance of live birth based on chance of ovulation (from 1), age and oligo/a-menorrhea.

The combinations from the nomogram on page 96 were determined and the findings analyzed in JMP. The following equations were obtained as reasonable approximations for the data.

Chance of Ovulation – Oligomenorrhea

chance of ovulation =

= ((slope) * BMI) + (intercept)

slope =

= (-0.077088 * (FAI)) – 0.50978

intercept =

= (-0.07045 * ((FAI)^2)) + (0.96649 * (FAI)) + 105.9835

Chance of Ovulation – Amenorrhea

chance of ovulation =

= ((slope) * BMI) + (intercept)

slope =

= (0.0060919 * ((FAI)^2)) - (0.094334 * (FAI)) – 1.166901

intercept =

= (-0.196434 * ((FAI)^2)) - (0.249061 * (FAI)) + 109.65297

Chance of Live Birth – Oligomenorrhea

chance of live birth =

= ((second order value) * ((age)^2)) + ((first order value) * (age)) + intercept

second order value =

= (0.0008481 * (chance of ovulation)) + 0.000273

first order value =

= (-0.08111 * (chance of ovulation)) – 0.012569

intercept =

= (1.9665478 * (chance of ovulation)) + 0.1826

Chance of Live Birth – Amenorrhea

chance of live birth =

= ((second order value) * ((age)^2)) + ((first order value) * (age)) + intercept

second order value =

= (0.0004533 * (chance of ovulation)) + 0.0041528

first order value =

= (-0.059916 * (chance of ovulation)) – 0.274882

intercept =

= (1.8324987 * (chance of ovulation)) + 4.7478313