Hyder et al reported a nomogram for predicting survival of a patient with an intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive or novel therapy. The authors are from multiple institutions from around the world.
Patient selection: intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 25 to 85 years
(2) size in cm, from 1 to 15 cm
(3) number of tumors
(4) nodal status
(5) vascular invasion
(6) cirrhosis
Age
Points
25 to 45 years
8.542 - (0.165 * (age))
45 to 55 years
6.05 - (0.11 * (age))
55 to 65 years
(0.1 * (age)) - 5.5
65 to 85 years
(0.32 * (age)) - 19.87
Size
Points
1 to 2 cm
(5 * (size)) - 5
2 to 5 cm
(1.267 * (size)) + 2.467
5 to 7 cm
(0.5 * (size)) + 6.3
> 7 cm
9.8
Parameters
Finding
Points
number of tumors
1
0
2 or more
2.9
nodal status
N0
0
Nx
2.1
N1
3.8
vascular invasion
none
0
microscopic
0.4
macroscopic
5.2
cirrhosis
no
0
yes
2.7
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 31.85
X =
= (-0.0057351 * ((score)^2)) - (0.098576 * (score)) + 1.8309
percent 5-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.70.
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