Huang et al reported a prognostic model for evaluating a patient with a pancreatic duct adenocarcinoma. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe.
Patient selection: pancreatic adenocarcinoma
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) age in years
(3) T stage
(4) N stage
(5) differentiation
points for age from 25 to 55 =
= (0.0095238 * ((age)^2)) - (2.2048 * (age)) + 91.571
points for age from 55 to 100 =
= (0.019091 * ((age)^2)) - (0.70455 * (age)) - 19.6
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0
male
18
T stage
T1
T2
53
T3
78
N stage
N0
N1
82
differentiation
well
moderately
47
poorly or undifferentiated
97
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 375
Total Score
Median Survival in Months
0 to 64
(0.0032244 * ((score)^2)) - (0.83431 * (score)) + 90.116
64 to 251
(-0.0000028123 * ((score)^3)) + (0.0019885 * ((score)^2)) - (0.55295 * (score)) + 77.981
> 251
< 20 months
2-Year Survival
< 29
> 75%
29 to 358
(-0.000001144 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0012712 * (score)) + 0.79341
> 358
< 20%
5-Year Survival
< 15
> 55%
15 to 323
(0.000001623 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0022301 * (score)) + 0.59232
> 323
< 5%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is around 0.60.
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Specialty: Hematology Oncology
