Huang et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of anastomotic leak following esophagectomy. The authors are from Shanghai Chest Hospital and Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
Patient selection: status post esophagectomy
Parameters:
(1) sex of the patient
(2) diabetes mellitus
(3) anastomotic mode
(4) reconstruction route
(5) smoking
(6) serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in mg/L
(7) cardiac arrhythmia
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex of the patient
female
0
male
41.1
diabetes mellitus
no
0
yes
41.5
anastomotic mode
stapled
0
hand-sewn
27.1
reconstruction route
posterior mediastinum
0
retrosternal
61.7
smoking
no
0
yes
79.2
serum CRP
<= 10 mg/L
0
> 10 mg/L
58.4
cardiac arrhythmia
no
0
yes
100
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 408.9
value of X =
= (0.0141 * (score)) - 2.493
probability of anastomotic leak =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.69.
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