Description

Hu et al developed a model for predicting liver failure following partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management or a novel therapy. The authors are from Fudan University (Shanghai), Shanghai Institute of Medical Imaging, and Peking Union Medical College in China.


Patient selection: resection of a hepatocellular carcinoma

 

Outcome: liver failure after surgery

 

Parameters:

(1) platelet count in 10^9/L

(2) ElastPQ (Elast point quantitative) values in kPa from shear wave elastography (on the Philips Ultrasound Elasto system)

(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L

(4) clinical signs of portal hypertension

(5) serum GGT in U/L

 

points for platelet count =

= (-0.1538 * (platelet coefficient in 10^9/)) + 100

 

points for ElastPQ =

= (2.975 * (ElastPQ)) - 5.95

 

points for serum total bilirubin =

= (1.70667 * (bilirubin)) - 8.5333

 

points for portal hypertension =

= (9.5 if present, else 0)

 

points for serum GGT =

= (0.05166 * (GGT))

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 302.2

 

Total Score

Hepatic Failure in percent

< 60

< 1%

60 to 208

X = (0.06217 * (score)) - 8.323;

probability = 1 / (1+EXP((-1)*X))

> 208

> 99%

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.


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