Nomogram of Hollemans et al for Predicting Successful Catheter Drainage of Infected Necrotizing Pancreatitis

Description

Hollemans et al reported a nomogram for prediction of successful catheter drainage of infected necrotizing pancreatitis. This can help to identify a patient who may require an alternative management strategy. The authors are from multiple hospitals in The Netherlands and the Dutch Pancreatitis Study Group.

Patient selection: infected necrotizing pancreatitis

Outcome: catheter drainage

Parameters:

(1) sex

(2) percentage of pancreas that is necrotic

(3) density of collection on imaging studies

(4) multi-organ failure (MOF)

Parameter	Finding	Points
sex	female	0
	male	10
percentage of pancreas that is necrotic	< 30%	0
	30 to 50%	5
	> 50%	8
density on imaging studies	homogeneous	0
	heterogeneous	10
multi-organ failure	no	0
	yes	12

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 40

• The higher the score the lower the probability of successful catheter drainage.

Score	Percent Successful
0	91%
5	82%
8	75%
10	68%
12	60%
15	50%
17	42%
18	40%
20	31%
22	25%
25	18%
27	13%
28	12%
30	9%
32	7%
37	3%
40	2%

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.76.

To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.

Nomogram of Hollemans et al for Predicting Successful Catheter Drainage of Infected Necrotizing Pancreatitis

Description

Specialty