Giannella et al reported a nomogram for predicting infection with a carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) in a patient with a liver transplant. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe, South America and North America,
Patient selection: liver transplant
Parameters:
(1) surgical reintervention
(2) acute renal failure (ARF)
(3) mechanical ventilation
(4) CRE colonization 60-day prior to transplant
(5) CRE colonization post-transplant
(6) multi-site colonization post-transplant
Parameter
Finding
Points
surgical reintervention
no
14.3
yes
40
acute renal failure
no
0
yes
43.8
mechanical ventilation
no
5.7
yes
63.7
CRE colonization prior
no
5.1
yes
33.2
CRE colonization post
no
10.2
yes
79
multi-site colonization
no
17.2
yes
100
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 52.5
• maximum score: 359.7
value of X =
= (0.000023833 * ((score)^2)) + (0.0072104 * (score)) - 3.1872
probability of CRE infection =
= 1/ (1+EXP((-1)*X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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