Ge et al reported a model for predicting survival for a patient with a metastatic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor. This can help to identify a patient who requires more aggressive management. The authors are from Shaoxing Central Hospital in China.
Patient selection: metastatic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma
Parameters:
(1) age at diagnosis
(2) sex of the patient
(3) histologic grade
(4) operation performed
(5) lymph node metastases
(6) marital status
(7) tumor size in cm
Parameter
Finding
Points
age at diagnosis
< 60 years
0
>= 60 years
27.5
sex of the patient
female
0
male
10.7
histologic grade
well-differentiated
0
moderately differentiated
14.6
poorly differentiated
84.6
undifferentiated
87.7
operation performed
yes
0
no
100
lymph node metastases
no
0
yes
19.5
marital status
married
0
single
11.4
unknown
3.7
tumor size
< 2 cm
0
2 to 3.9 cm
20.9
>= 4 cm
25.1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 294.2
• The higher the score the greater the mortality.
value of X =
= (-0.000061499 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0064766 * (score)) + 2.2278
probability of 5-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
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