Ferrone et al developed a nomogram for predicting disease-specific survival after resection of a pancreatic adenocarcinoma. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive or a novel therapy. The authors are from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Cleveland Clinic, and Massachusetts General Hospital.
Parameters from pretreatment data:
(1) age
(2) sex/gender
(3) portal vein involvement
(4) splenectomy
(5) margin of resection
(6) location (involvement of head vs other portion of the pancreas)
(7) histologic differentiation
(8) posterior margin
(9) number of positive lymph nodes
(10) number of negative lymph nodes
(11) back pain
(12) T stage
(13) weight loss
(14) maximum pathologic axis (diameter in cm)
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
---|---|---|
gender |
female |
0 |
|
male |
7.25 |
portal vein involvement |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
10.3 |
splenectomy |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
61.8 |
margin of resection |
negative |
0 |
|
positive |
4.5 |
location |
head |
51.8 |
|
other |
0 |
differentiation |
well differentiated |
0 |
|
moderately differentiated |
13.9 |
|
poorly differentiated |
34.9 |
posterior margin |
negative |
0 |
|
positive |
21,5 |
back pain |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
15 |
T stage |
T2 |
0 |
|
T3 |
9.9 |
|
T1 |
36.2 |
|
T4 |
62.8 |
weight loss |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
3.1 |
Age |
Points for Age |
---|---|
< 30 |
15 |
30 to 90 |
10.873 - (0.1208 * (age in years)) |
>= 90 |
0 |
Negative Nodes |
Points for Negative Nodes |
---|---|
0 |
10.9 |
1 to 90 |
10.8 - (0.12077 * (number of negative nodes)) |
>= 90 |
0 |
Positive Nodes |
Points for Positive Nodes |
---|---|
0 |
0 |
1to 4 |
(-1.993 * ((number)^2)) + (16.22 * (number)) + 0.1143 |
5 to 40 |
29.65 + (0.9909 * (number)) |
>= 40 |
69.1 |
Maximum Diameter |
Points for Maximum Diameter |
---|---|
0 |
0 |
0.1 to 4.5 |
(-2.843 * ((diameter)^2)) + (36.89 * (diameter)) - 1.386 |
4.5 to 16 |
119.3 - (3.587 * (diameter)) |
>= 16 |
62 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 14 parameters)
Total Points |
Probability of 12 Month Survival |
---|---|
< 79 |
> 94% |
79 to 336.4 |
see below |
> 336.4 |
< 6% |
X for 12 month survival =
= (-0.000042 * ((points)^2)) - (0.003033 * (points)) + 3.152
probability of 12 month survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Total Points |
Probability of 24 Month Survival |
---|---|
< 70.5 |
> 86% |
70.5 to 303.3 |
see below |
> 303.3 |
< 1% |
Y for 24 month survival for 70.5 to 303.3 =
= (-0.000084 * ((points)^2)) + (0.005280 * (points)) + 1.706
probability of 24 month survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))
Total Points |
Probability of 36 Month Survival |
---|---|
< 68.7 |
> 80% |
68.7 to 273.9 |
see below |
> 273.9 |
< 1% |
Z for 36 month survival =
= (-0.000101 * ((points)^2)) + (0.007003 * (points)) + 1.24
probability of 36 month survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Z))
Purpose: To determine the disease specific survival following resection of a pancreatic adenocarcinoma using the nomogram of Ferrone et al.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general, Gastroenterology
Objective: severity, prognosis, stage, response to therapy
ICD-10: C25,