Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Survival Nomogram - Medical Algorithm

Description

Ferrone et al developed a nomogram for predicting disease-specific survival after resection of a pancreatic adenocarcinoma. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive or a novel therapy. The authors are from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Cleveland Clinic, and Massachusetts General Hospital.

Parameters from pretreatment data:

(1) age

(2) sex/gender

(3) portal vein involvement

(4) splenectomy

(5) margin of resection

(6) location (involvement of head vs other portion of the pancreas)

(7) histologic differentiation

(8) posterior margin

(9) number of positive lymph nodes

(10) number of negative lymph nodes

(11) back pain

(12) T stage

(13) weight loss

(14) maximum pathologic axis (diameter in cm)

Parameter	Finding	Points
gender	female	0
	male	7.25
portal vein involvement	no	0
	yes	10.3
splenectomy	no	0
	yes	61.8
margin of resection	negative	0
	positive	4.5
location	head	51.8
	other	0
differentiation	well differentiated	0
	moderately differentiated	13.9
	poorly differentiated	34.9
posterior margin	negative	0
	positive	21,5
back pain	no	0
	yes	15
T stage	T2	0
	T3	9.9
	T1	36.2
	T4	62.8
weight loss	no	0
	yes	3.1

Age	Points for Age
< 30	15
30 to 90	10.873 - (0.1208 * (age in years))
>= 90	0

Negative Nodes	Points for Negative Nodes
0	10.9
1 to 90	10.8 - (0.12077 * (number of negative nodes))
>= 90	0

Positive Nodes	Points for Positive Nodes
0	0
1to 4	(-1.993 * ((number)^2)) + (16.22 * (number)) + 0.1143
5 to 40	29.65 + (0.9909 * (number))
>= 40	69.1

Maximum Diameter	Points for Maximum Diameter
0	0
0.1 to 4.5	(-2.843 * ((diameter)^2)) + (36.89 * (diameter)) - 1.386
4.5 to 16	119.3 - (3.587 * (diameter))
>= 16	62

total score =

= SUM(points for all 14 parameters)

Total Points	Probability of 12 Month Survival
< 79	> 94%
79 to 336.4	see below
> 336.4	< 6%

X for 12 month survival =

= (-0.000042 * ((points)^2)) - (0.003033 * (points)) + 3.152

probability of 12 month survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Total Points	Probability of 24 Month Survival
< 70.5	> 86%
70.5 to 303.3	see below
> 303.3	< 1%

Y for 24 month survival for 70.5 to 303.3 =

= (-0.000084 * ((points)^2)) + (0.005280 * (points)) + 1.706

probability of 24 month survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))

Total Points	Probability of 36 Month Survival
< 68.7	> 80%
68.7 to 273.9	see below
> 273.9	< 1%

Z for 36 month survival =

= (-0.000101 * ((points)^2)) + (0.007003 * (points)) + 1.24

probability of 36 month survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Z))

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Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Nomogram of Ferrone et al for Disease-Specific Survival After Resection of a Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Purpose: To determine the disease specific survival following resection of a pancreatic adenocarcinoma using the nomogram of Ferrone et al.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10