Dong et al reported a nomogram for predicting progression in frailty status for an older adult living in the community in China. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from an intervention to reverse frailty. The authors are from Fudon University and Xidu Community Health Center of Fengxian District in China.
Patient selection: nonfrail adult >= 60 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 60 to 100
(2) marital status
(3) physical exercise
(4) baseline frailty status
(5) diabetes
points for age =
= (2.5 * (age)) - 150
Parameter
Finding
Points
marital status
married
0
unmarried
20.4
physical exercise
every day
0
sometimes
30.1
never
50.6
baseline status
prefrail
0
robust
47
diabetes
no
0
yes
13
where:
• The authors note that the risk for being robust is greater than for prefrailty (page 2573). Progression for a robust person is to either prefrailty or frailty. About 60% of robust patients go either way. Prefrail patients have 21% progressing and 20% improving.
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 231.1
• The higher the score the greater the risk of frailty progression.
value of X =
= (0.04972 * (score)) - 4.918
probability of progression =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.85.
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