Description

Ding et al reported a nomogram for predicting 30-day readmission in acute pancreatitis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University in China.


Patient selection: acute pancreatitis, alive at discharge

 

Parameters:

(1) etiology

(2) necrotizing pancreatitis

(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L

(4) blood glucose in mmol/L

(5) serum albumin in g/L

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

etiology

alcoholic

0

 

hyperlipidemia

59.2

 

biliary

95.4

 

other

94

 

mixed

100

necrotizing pancreatitis

absent

0

 

sterile

6.3

 

infected

35

serum total bilirubin

< 20.5 µmol/L

0

 

>= 20.5 µmol/L

37.1

blood glucose

< 6.1 mmol/L

0

 

>= 6.1 mmol/L

27.5

serum albumin

>= 40 g/L

0

 

< 40 g/L

61

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 260.6

• The higher the score the greater the risk of readmission.

 

value of X =

= (0.0238 * (score)) - 5.168

 

probability of 30-day readmission =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.78.


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