Ding et al reported a nomogram for predicting 30-day readmission in acute pancreatitis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University in China.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis, alive at discharge
Parameters:
(1) etiology
(2) necrotizing pancreatitis
(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(4) blood glucose in mmol/L
(5) serum albumin in g/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
etiology
alcoholic
0
hyperlipidemia
59.2
biliary
95.4
other
94
mixed
100
necrotizing pancreatitis
absent
0
sterile
6.3
infected
35
serum total bilirubin
< 20.5 µmol/L
0
>= 20.5 µmol/L
37.1
blood glucose
< 6.1 mmol/L
0
>= 6.1 mmol/L
27.5
serum albumin
>= 40 g/L
0
< 40 g/L
61
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 260.6
• The higher the score the greater the risk of readmission.
value of X =
= (0.0238 * (score)) - 5.168
probability of 30-day readmission =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.78.
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