Chen et al reported a nomogram that predicts the risk of transfusion for a patient undergoing spinal tuberculosis surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from strategies to reduce this risk. The authors are from GungXi Medical University in Nanning.
Patient selection: surgery for spinal tuberculosis
Parameters:
(1) gender
(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(3) pain
(4) night sweats
(5) internal fixation
(6) age in years
(7) number of days of hospitalization
(8) hemoglobin in g/L
(9) AST to ALT ratio
(10) blood urea in mmol/L
(11) serum HDL cholesterol in mmol/L
Parameter
Findings
Points
gender
male
0
female
50.5
BMI
< 18.5 kg per sq m
66.7
18.5 to 24.9
58
> 25 kg per sq m
0
pain
no
0
yes
100
night sweats
no
0
yes
35.4
internal fixation
no
0
yes
69.8
age in years
< 60 years
0
>= 60 years
55.5
days hospitalized
<= 11
0
> 11
65.5
hemoglobin
< 120 g/L
51.4
>= 120 g/L
0
AST to ALT ratio
<= 1
34.4
> 1
0
urea in mmol/L
< 3.2 mmol/L
0
3.2 to 7.1 mmol/L
42
> 7.1 mmol/L
0
serum HDL cholesterol
< 0.94 mmol/L
49
0.94 to 2 mmol/L
0
> 2 mmol/L
49
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 621.2
value of X =
= (0.01585 * (score)) - 6.834
probability of blood transfusion =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.
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