Chen et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of active tuberculosis for a person living with HIV. The authors are from Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Family Health International, and Yunnan Provincial Hospital of Infectious Disease in Kunming, China.
Patient: HIV positive patient in China
Parameters:
(1) CD4 lymphocyte count per microliter
(2) number of WHO symptoms (cough, fever, weight loss, night sweats)
(3) pulmonary cavity
(4) previous history of tuberculosis
(5) smoking
Parameter
Finding
Points
CD4 count
> 200
0
100 to 199
44
< 100
100
number of WHO symptoms
0
0
1
18
2
36
3
54
4
72
pulmonary cavity
no
0
yes
94
previous TB history
no
0
yes
63
current smoker
no (never)
0
yes
86
where:
• There is no smoker category for former so merged with never.
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 415
Total Score
Risk of Tuberculosis
<= 61
0
62 to 148
10%
149 to 205
20%
206 to 253
30%
254 to 296
40%
297 to 339
50%
340 to 387
60%
>= 388
70%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.68.
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