Cerrillo et al reported a nomogram which can predict recurrence of Crohn's Disease after a surgical resection. The authors are from La Fe University, Institute of Health Carlos III and Medical Research Institute Hospital La Fe in Valencia, Spain.
Patient selection: Crohn's disease, after resection of affected bowel
Parameters (using samples collected 6 months after surgery):
(1) postoperative prophylaxis
(2) fecal calprotectin in µg/g feces
(3) serum IL6 in pg/mL, from 0.1 to 403
(4) serum interferon-gamma in pg/mL, from 0.1 to 403
points for serum IL6 =
= (12.3 * LN(IL6)) + 25.53
points for serum interferon-gamma =
= 15.21 - (2.585 * LN(interferon))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
fecal calprotectin
|
<= 160
|
0
|
|
|
> 160
|
11.8
|
|
prophylaxis
|
no
|
57.3
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 190.9
• The higher the score the greater the risk of recurrence.
value of X =
= (0.123 * (score)) - 7.592
probability of early postoperative recurrence as published =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
NOTE: The total points in Figure 8 go from 0 to 100. It is possible that the total score should be 0 to 200. This of course would require a slight adjustment.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.90.
