Ballester et al reported a nomogram for predicting pregnancy in a woman with endometriosis following in vitro fertilization. The authors are from Hopital Teon and Universite Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris.
In vitro feritlization procedure: intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI)
Outcome: pregnancy rate
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years from 22 to 42
(2) associated deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE)
(3) serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentration in ng/mL
(4) ICSI-IVF cycle from 1 to 4
points for age =
= (-5 * (age)) + 210
Parameter
Finding
Points
associated DIE
no
67.1
yes
0
serum AMH
<= 1 ng/mL
0
> 1 ng/mL
52.6
ICSI-IVF cycle
1
86.8
2
57.2
3
28.9
4
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation"
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 306.5
Score
Probability of Becoming Pregnant
< 37.5
< 10%
37.5 to 256.6
X = (0.020073 * (score)) - 2.9335;
probability of pregnancy = 1/(1+EXP((-1)*X))
> 256.6
> 90%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve in the derivation set was 0.76 versus 0.68 in the validation cohort.
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