Arfi et al reported a nomogram for predicting the probability of a live birth after surgery for deep endometriosis without bowel involvement. The authors are from Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris 6 and Centre Expert En Endometriose in France.
Patient selection: woman with deep endometriosis not involving bowel, status post surgery
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) body mass index in kg per square meter
(3) serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentration in ng/mL
(4) Enzian Grade of endometriosis
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 30 years
56.09
30 to 35 years
38.97
> 35 years
0
BMI
< 25 kg per sq m
0
>= 25 kg per sq m
46.15
serum AMH
< 1 ng/mL
0
>= 1 ng/mL
26.66
Enzian grade
Grade 1
100
Grade 2
59.61
Grade 3
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 228.81
value of X =
= (0.035327 * (score)) - 6.43989
probability of live birth in a woman trying to conceive =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.84.
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