Assman et al developed a multiple logistic regression model for predicting the risk of a major coronary event within 8 years for a middle aged male. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Munster and the data is based on the PROCAM (Munster Heart) Study.
NOTE: A scoring system based on the PROCAM study is discussed above.
Patient selection: male aged 40 to 65 years
Outcome: major coronary event (fatal AMI, nonfatal AMI, sudden cardiac death)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(3) LDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(4) HDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(5) triglycerides in mg/dL
(6) cigarette smoking
(7) diabetes mellitus
(8) family history of myocardial infarction
(9) angina pectoris
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
cigarette smoking |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
diabetes mellitus |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
family history of AMI |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
angina pectoris |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
X =
= (0.1001 * (age in years)) + (0.0118 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0152 * (LDL cholesterol)) - (0.045 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.3346 * LN(triglycerides)) + (0.9266 * (points for cigarette smoking)) + (0.4015 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.4193 * (points for family history)) + (1.319 * (points for angina)) - 12.3199
probability of a major coronary event within 8 years =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) *X))
Specialty: Cardiology
ICD-10: ,