Description

Assman et al developed a multiple logistic regression model for predicting the risk of a major coronary event within 8 years for a middle aged male. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Munster and the data is based on the PROCAM (Munster Heart) Study.


 

NOTE: A scoring system based on the PROCAM study is discussed above.

 

Patient selection: male aged 40 to 65 years

 

Outcome: major coronary event (fatal AMI, nonfatal AMI, sudden cardiac death)

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg

(3) LDL cholesterol in mg/dL

(4) HDL cholesterol in mg/dL

(5) triglycerides in mg/dL

(6) cigarette smoking

(7) diabetes mellitus

(8) family history of myocardial infarction

(9) angina pectoris

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

cigarette smoking

absent

0

 

present

1

diabetes mellitus

absent

0

 

present

1

family history of AMI

absent

0

 

present

1

angina pectoris

absent

0

 

present

1

 

X =

= (0.1001 * (age in years)) + (0.0118 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0152 * (LDL cholesterol)) - (0.045 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.3346 * LN(triglycerides)) + (0.9266 * (points for cigarette smoking)) + (0.4015 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.4193 * (points for family history)) + (1.319 * (points for angina)) - 12.3199

 

probability of a major coronary event within 8 years =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) *X))

 


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