MPM II during Admission | Medicalalgorithms.com

Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) can be used during a patient's stay in the ICU to predict mortality.

Continued Variables:

(1) age in years

(2) cirrhosis

(3) metastatic carcinoma

(4) Glasgow coma scale

(5) intracranial mass effect

(6) nonelective surgical admission

(7) mechanical ventilation

Discontinued Variables:

(1) chronic renal insufficiency

(2) acute renal failure

(3) heart rate

(4) systolic blood pressure

(5) cardiac dysrhythmia

(6) cerebrovascular incident

(7) gastrointestinal bleeding

(8) CPR prior to ICU admission

New Variables:

(1) creatinine > 2 mg/dL

(2) urine output < 150 mL in an 8 hour period

(3) PaO2 < 60 mm Hg

(4) prothrombin time > 3 seconds above control

(5) infection

(6) intravenous vasoactive drug therapy >= 1 hour

Constant

(1) varies for 24, 48 and 72 hours

Class	Variable	coefficient
chronic health status	cirrhosis	1.08745
	metastatic carcinoma	1.16109
physiology	creatinine > 2 mg/dL	0.72283
	urine output < 150 mL in 8 hours	0.82286
	PaO2 < 60 mm Hg	0.46677
	prothrombin time > 3 seconds above control	0.55352
	Glasgow Coma Scale or modified	1.68790
acute diagnoses	infection	0.49742
	intracranial mass effect	0.91314
other	age	0.03268
	type of admission (medical or unscheduled surgery admission)	0.83404
	mechanical ventilation	0.80845
	vasoactive drug therapy >= 1 hour intravenously	0.71628
constant		-5.646 (24) -5.392 (48) -5.238 (72)

beta value for each variable =

= (coefficient) * (if age, then age in years; else, 1 if present or 0 if absent)

logit =

= SUM (beta values)

probability of hospital mortality =

= (EXP(logit)) / (1 + (EXP(logit)))

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