Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) can be used during a patient's stay in the ICU to predict mortality.
Continued Variables:
(1) age in years
(2) cirrhosis
(3) metastatic carcinoma
(4) Glasgow coma scale
(5) intracranial mass effect
(6) nonelective surgical admission
(7) mechanical ventilation
Discontinued Variables:
(1) chronic renal insufficiency
(2) acute renal failure
(3) heart rate
(4) systolic blood pressure
(5) cardiac dysrhythmia
(6) cerebrovascular incident
(7) gastrointestinal bleeding
(8) CPR prior to ICU admission
New Variables:
(1) creatinine > 2 mg/dL
(2) urine output < 150 mL in an 8 hour period
(3) PaO2 < 60 mm Hg
(4) prothrombin time > 3 seconds above control
(5) infection
(6) intravenous vasoactive drug therapy >= 1 hour
Constant
(1) varies for 24, 48 and 72 hours
Class |
Variable |
coefficient |
chronic health status |
cirrhosis |
1.08745 |
|
metastatic carcinoma |
1.16109 |
physiology |
creatinine > 2 mg/dL |
0.72283 |
|
urine output < 150 mL in 8 hours |
0.82286 |
|
PaO2 < 60 mm Hg |
0.46677 |
|
prothrombin time > 3 seconds above control |
0.55352 |
|
Glasgow Coma Scale or modified |
1.68790 |
acute diagnoses |
infection |
0.49742 |
|
intracranial mass effect |
0.91314 |
other |
age |
0.03268 |
|
type of admission (medical or unscheduled surgery admission) |
0.83404 |
|
mechanical ventilation |
0.80845 |
|
vasoactive drug therapy >= 1 hour intravenously |
0.71628 |
constant |
|
-5.646 (24) -5.392 (48) -5.238 (72) |
beta value for each variable =
= (coefficient) * (if age, then age in years; else, 1 if present or 0 if absent)
logit =
= SUM (beta values)
probability of hospital mortality =
= (EXP(logit)) / (1 + (EXP(logit)))
Specialty: Critical Care, Emergency Medicine
ICD-10: ,