Description

Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) can be used during a patient's stay in the ICU to predict mortality.


 

Continued Variables:

(1) age in years

(2) cirrhosis

(3) metastatic carcinoma

(4) Glasgow coma scale

(5) intracranial mass effect

(6) nonelective surgical admission

(7) mechanical ventilation

 

Discontinued Variables:

(1) chronic renal insufficiency

(2) acute renal failure

(3) heart rate

(4) systolic blood pressure

(5) cardiac dysrhythmia

(6) cerebrovascular incident

(7) gastrointestinal bleeding

(8) CPR prior to ICU admission

 

New Variables:

(1) creatinine > 2 mg/dL

(2) urine output < 150 mL in an 8 hour period

(3) PaO2 < 60 mm Hg

(4) prothrombin time > 3 seconds above control

(5) infection

(6) intravenous vasoactive drug therapy >= 1 hour

 

Constant

(1) varies for 24, 48 and 72 hours

 

Class

Variable

coefficient

chronic health status

cirrhosis

1.08745

 

metastatic carcinoma

1.16109

physiology

creatinine > 2 mg/dL

0.72283

 

urine output < 150 mL in 8 hours

0.82286

 

PaO2 < 60 mm Hg

0.46677

 

prothrombin time > 3 seconds above control

0.55352

 

Glasgow Coma Scale or modified

1.68790

acute diagnoses

infection

0.49742

 

intracranial mass effect

0.91314

other

age

0.03268

 

type of admission (medical or unscheduled surgery admission)

0.83404

 

mechanical ventilation

0.80845

 

vasoactive drug therapy >= 1 hour intravenously

0.71628

constant

 

-5.646 (24)

-5.392 (48)

-5.238 (72)

 

beta value for each variable =

= (coefficient) * (if age, then age in years; else, 1 if present or 0 if absent)

 

logit =

= SUM (beta values)

 

probability of hospital mortality =

= (EXP(logit)) / (1 + (EXP(logit)))

 


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