Description

The UK EVAR trial used a modified customized probability model (mCPM) for evaluating patients undergoing repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).


 

EVAR = EndoVascular Aneurysm Repair

 

The original CPI was reported by Kertai et al.

 

Parameters:

(1) previous history of cardovascular disease (myocardial infarction, cardiac revascularization, angina, severe valvular disease, significant arrhythmia)

(2) congestive heart failure

(3) therapy for hypertension

(4) observed FEV1 as percent of predicted

(5) serum creatinine in µmol/L

(6) therapy with a beta-blocker

(7) therapy with a statin

Parameter

Finding

Points

history of cardiovascular disease

no

0

 

yes

13

congestive heart failure

none

0

 

controlled

0

 

uncontrolled

14

therapy of hypertension

no

0

 

yes

7

FEV1

>= 60% of predicted

0

 

< 60% of predicted

7

serum creatinine

< 180 µmol/L

0

 

>= 180 µmol/L

16

beta blocker therapy

no

0

 

yes

-15

statin therapy

no

0

 

yes

-10

 

total score =

=SUM(points for all 7 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: -25

• maximum score: 57

• The higher the score the worse the patient's fitness.

 

Total Score

Fitness

4-Year Survival (EVAR I)

< 0

good

78%

0 to 10

moderate

74%

> 10

poor

70%

 


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