Wolf et al developed several prognostic models for pediatric patients with massive burns. These patients require aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston and the Shriners Burns Institute in Galveston.
Patient selection: age < 18 years, total burn surface area >= 80% of total body surface area, full-thickness burn >= 70%
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sepsis (0 if absent, 1 if present)
(3) number of days requiring ventilatory support in the first 28 days (indicating long length of stay)
percent of days requiring ventilatory support in the first 28 days =
= (number of days) / 28 * 100%
X =
= (4.37 * (percent of days requiring ventilatory support) / 100) - 2.96
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Y =
= (4.84 * (percent of days requiring ventilatory support) / 100) + (3.25 * (points for sepsis)) - (0.21 * (age)) - 3.59
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))
Limitations:
• The paper was published in 1997.
