Wilson et al reported 2 models for recurrent cardiovascular disease in a patient with cardiovascular disease. One model predicts risk of cardiovascular death. The authors are from multiple institutions from around the world.
Patient: history of cardiovascular disease
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) age in years
(3) smoking
(4) diabetes
(5) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(6) number of vascular beds (0 to 3: cerebral, coronary artery, peripheral arterial)
(7) cardiovascular event in past year
(8) congestive heart failure
(9) atrial fibrillation
(10) statin therapy
(11) acetylsalicylic acid
(12) geographic region
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficient
sex
female
0
male
0.24519
age in years
0.04966 * (years)
smoking
current
0.30925
other
0
diabetes
yes
0.46141
no
0
BMI
< 20 kg per sq m
0.55132
>= 20
0
number of vascular beds
0.24928 * (number)
cardiovascular event
no
0
yes
0.26681
congestive heart failure
no
0
yes
0.89976
atrial fibrillation
no
0
yes
0.42705
statin therapy
no
0
yes
-0.22296
acetylsalicylic acid
no
0
yes
-0.17968
region
Eastern Europe
0.25934
Middle East
0.25934
Japan
-0.65524
Australia
-0.65524
other
0
X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 4.03317
20-month risk for cardiovascular death =
= 1 - (0.97748 ^ (EXP(X)))
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