Wilson et al reported 2 models for recurrent cardiovascular disease in a patient with cardiovascular disease. One model predicts risk of a new cardiovascular eent. The authors are from multiple institutions from around the world.
Patient: history of cardiovascular disease
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) age in years
(3) smoking
(4) diabetes
(5) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(6) number of vascular beds (0 to 3: cerebral, coronary artery, peripheral arterial)
(7) cardiovascular event in past year
(8) congestive heart failure
(9) atrial fibrillation
(10) statin therapy
(11) acetylsalicylic acid
(12) geographic region
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficient
sex
female
0
male
0.10246
age in years
0.03089 * (years)
smoking
current
0.24121
other
0
diabetes
yes
0.37824
no
0
BMI
< 20 kg per sq m
0.31428
>= 20
0
number of vascular beds
0.30277 * (number)
cardiovascular event
no
0
yes
0.38168
congestive heart failure
no
0
yes
0.51873
atrial fibrillation
no
0
yes
0.26652
statin therapy
no
0
yes
-0.28332
acetylsalicylic acid
no
0
yes
-0.10151
region
Eastern Europe
0.27574
Middle East
0.27574
Japan
-0.31604
Australia
-0.31604
other
0
X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 2.68845
20-month risk for a new cardiovascular event =
= 1 - (0.93681 ^ (EXP(X)))
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