Wang developed models for morbidity and mortality for a patient undergoing cystectomy based on data in the NSQIP database. The author is from the University of North Carolina.
Patient selection: cystectomy
Parameters:
(1) chemotherapy within past 30 days
(2) history of cardiac surgery
(3) preoperative serum BUN in mg/dL
(4) history of PCI (percutaneous coronary interverntion)
(5) steroid use for a chronic condition within past 30 days (oral or parenteral for > 10 days)
(6) preoperative white blood cell count as an integer per 10^3 or 10^9
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Morbidity
|
Mortality
|
|
chemotherapy
|
no
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.945
|
1.445
|
|
cardiac surgery
|
no
|
0
|
NA
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.929
|
NA
|
|
serum BUN
|
|
0.028 * (BUN)
|
NA
|
|
history of PCI
|
no
|
0
|
NA
|
|
|
yes
|
0.760
|
NA
|
|
steroid therapy
|
no
|
NA
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
NA
|
2.693
|
|
preop WBC
|
|
NA
|
0.101*(WBC)
|
X for morbidity =
= SUM(points for the 4 parameters) - 1.155
Y for mortality =
= SUM(points for 3 parameters) - 4.293
probability of morbidity =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for the morbidity model is 0.63.
• The area under the ROC curve for the mortality model is 0.73.
