Patient selection: sepsis with DIC
Parameters:
(1) procalcitonin in pg/mL
(2) VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor), units not given, assay a Randox Cytokine and Growth Factors High-Sensitivity assay (Randox, London), presumably pg/mL
(3) IL-6 to IL-10 ratio (with IL's in pg/mL)
(4) Endocan in ng/mL
(5) PF4 in ng/mL
(6) APACHE II score, from 0 to 71
(7) WBC count, units not given, presumable in 10^9/L
Model for Biomarkers
ratio of IL-6 to IL-10 =
= (concentration of IL-6) / (concentration of IL-10)
|
Parameter
|
Points
|
|
procalcitonin
|
0.000041 * (procalcitonin)
|
|
VEGF
|
0.0026 * (VEGF)
|
|
IL6 to IL10 ratio
|
0.00085 * (ratio)
|
|
Endocan
|
0.01 * (Endocan)
|
|
PF4
|
-0.0016 * (PF4)
|
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 0.0019
probability of 28-day mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Model for Clinical Data and Procalcitonin
|
Parameters
|
Points
|
|
APACHE II
|
0.0098 * (APACHE II)
|
|
WBC
|
0.013 * (WBC)
|
|
procalcitonin
|
0.0000447 * (procalcitonin)
|
Y =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 0.27
probability of 28-day mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for the biomarker model was 0.87.
• The area under the ROC curve for the clinical model was 0.84.
