Venkat et al developed 2 models for predicting mortality following pancreaticoduodenectomy. The authors are from the Johns Hopkins University.
Patient selection: pancreaticoduodenectomy
Outcome: 90-day mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) tumor diameter in cm
(4) serum albumin in g/dL
(5) type of surgery
(6) Charlson comorbidity index (CCI)
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
age in years |
<= 60 years |
0 |
|
|
61 to 70 years |
4 |
|
|
71 to 80 years |
6 |
|
|
>= 81 years |
7 |
|
gender |
female |
0 |
|
|
male |
2 |
|
tumor diameter |
< 3 cm |
0 |
|
|
>= 3 cm |
2 |
|
serum albumin |
>=3.5 g/dL |
0 |
|
|
2.5 to 3.4 g/dL |
3 |
|
|
< 2.5 g/dL |
6 |
|
type of surgery |
pancreaticoduodenectomy |
0 |
|
|
total pancreatectomy |
2 |
|
Charlson comorbidity index |
0 |
0 |
|
|
1 to 3 |
1 |
|
|
4 to 6 |
2 |
|
|
>= 7 |
4 |
where:
• Removal of the tail only is not scored.
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 23
• The higher the score the greater the 90-day mortality.
|
Total Score |
Percent 30-day Mortality |
|
0 to 9 |
< 1% |
|
10 to 12 |
1 to 2% |
|
13 |
2.2% |
|
14 |
2.9% |
|
15 |
3.8% |
|
16 |
5.0% |
|
17 |
6.5% |
|
18 |
8% |
|
19 |
11% |
|
20 |
14% |
|
21 |
17% |
|
22 |
22% |
|
23 |
27% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.73.
Specialty: Gastroenterology, Surgery, general
