Valencia et al reported a model for predicting failure of antimony therapy for a patient with ulcerative leishmania lesions. The authors reported 2 models - PSATF-1 and PSATF-2; the latter is useful if the leishmania species is unknown. The authors are from Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Lima), Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp, and Hospitaux Universitaires de Geneve.
PSATF = Prediction Score for Antimony Treatment Failure
Difference from PSATF-1: removal of Leishmania species and total area
Patient selection: leishmaniasis with ulcerated skin lesions, range 0.3 to 85 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) time of disease
(3) concomitant distant lesions
(4) activity
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
-0.073 * (age)
disease duration
-0.028 * (duration)
concomitant distant
no
0
yes
1.83
activity
low
0
high
-2.06
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 2.84
probability of antimony treatment failure =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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