Valencia et al reported a model for predicting failure of antimony therapy for a patient with ulcerative leishmania lesions. The authors reported 2 models - PSATF-1 and PSATF-2. The authors are from Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Lima), Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp, and Hospitaux Universitaires de Geneve.
PSATF = Prediction Score for Antimony Treatment Failure
Difference from PSATF-2: inclusion of Leishmania species and total area
Patient selection: leishmaniasis with ulcerated skin lesions, range 0.3 to 85 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) species of Leishmania (L. guanensis, L. braziliensis, L. peruviana)
(3) time of disease
(4) total area of lesions in square cm
(5) concomitant distant lesions
(6) activity
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
-0.12 * (age)
species
L. brazilensis
3.24
other
0
disease duration
-0.027 * (duration)
total area
-0.64 * LN((area) + 1)
concomitant distant
no
0
yes
3.41
activity
low
0
high
-2.65
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 6.617
probability of antimony treatment failure =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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