Patient selection: HIV-negative adult with tuberculous meningitis in Vietnam
Outcome: 9-month mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 10 to 100 years
(2) history of previous tuberculosis treatment
(3) MRC grade for tuberculous meningitis
(4) focal neurological signs
(5) CSF lymphocyte count per microliter (from 1 to 500)
(6) dexamethasone therapy
points for age =
= (1.111 * (age)) - 11.11
points for CSF lymphocytes =
= 67.8 - (25.15 * LOG10(count))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
history of previous TB therapy
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
22.9
|
|
MRC grade
|
I
|
0
|
|
|
II
|
17.4
|
|
|
III
|
57.1
|
|
focal neurological signs
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
25.5
|
|
received dexamethasone
|
no
|
34.8
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 308.2
• The higher the score the greater the mortality.
|
Score
|
Probability of 9-Month Mortality
|
|
< 101.3
|
< 5%
|
|
101.3 to 248.2
|
(0.000024141 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0047447 * (score)) + 0.28665
|
|
> 248.2
|
> 60%
|
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77.
