Tesfa et al reported models for predicting birth asphyxia. One is a logistic regression model, and the second is a simple risk score. The authors are from Debre Tabor University in Ethiopia.
Parameters:
(1) premature rupture of the membranes (PROM)
(2) meconium aspiration
(3) fetal malposition
(4) prolonged second stage of labor
(5) birthweight in grams
(6) preterm delivery
(7) tight nuchal cord
Parameter
Finding
Points
PROM
no
0
yes
2
meconium aspiration
no
0
yes
1
fetal malposition
no
0
yes
1
prolonged labor
no
0
yes
1
birthweight
> 2,500 grams
0
<= 2.500 grams
1
preterm delivery
no
0
yes
1
tight nuchal cord
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 8
Score
Risk Group
Birth Asphyxia
< 2
low
8%
>= 2
high
60%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.88.
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