Saranbut et al reported several models for predicting the risk of a decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at 10 years in a mixed Asian population. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from interventions to reduce the risk. The authors are from Mahidol University in Bangkok.
Patient selection: Asian with eGFR >= 60 mL per min per 1.73 sq meter at baseline
Outcome: eGFR < 60 mL per min per 1.73 square meter within 10 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meters
(4) diabetes
(5) systolic blood pressure
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 45 years
0
45 to 54 years
2
>= 55 years
4
sex
female
0
male
2
eGFR
>= 90
0
75 to 89
1
60 to 74
9
diabetes
no
0
yes
5
systolic blood pressure
< 120 mm Hg
-3
120 to 129 mm Hg
0
130 to 139 mm Hg
1
140 to 149 mm Hg
3
150 to 159 mm Hg
4
>= 160 mm Hg
5
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -3
• maximum score: 25
• The higher the score the greater the risk of decreased GFR.
Total Score
10 Year Risk CKD
-3
1%
-2
1%
-1
1%
0
2%
1
2%
2
2%
3
3%
4
3%
5
4%
6
5%
7
5%
8
7%
9
8%
10
10%
11
10%
12
13%
13
14%
14
16%
15
19%
>= 16
>= 21%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.
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