Saranbut et al reported several models for predicting the risk of a decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at 10 years in a mixed Asian population. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from interventions to reduce the risk. The authors are from Mahidol University in Bangkok.
Patient selection: Asian with eGFR >= 60 mL per min per 1.73 sq meter at baseline
Outcome: eGFR < 60 mL per min per 1.73 square meter within 10 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(4) diabetes
(5) systolic blood pressure
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 45 years
0
45 to 54 years
2
>= 55 years
4
sex
female
0
male
2
BMI
< 25
0
>= 25
1
diabetes
no
0
yes
2
systolic blood pressure
< 120 mm Hg
-2
120 to 129 mm Hg
0
130 to 139 mm Hg
1
140 to 149 mm Hg
2
150 to 159 mm Hg
2
>= 160 mm Hg
3
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -2
• maximum score: 12
• The higher the score the greater the risk of decreased GFR.
Total Score
10 Year Risk CKD
-2
1%
-1
2%
0
3%
1
4%
2
4%
3
6%
4
7%
5
9%
6
11%
7
14%
8
18%
9
23%
10
30%
11
34%
12
50%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
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