Robson et al developed models for predicting obesity in urban Latino children. A reduced model used 5 parameters vs 10 for the full model. The authors are from the University of California in San Francisco.
Patient selection: urban Latino child, monitored from birth to 5 years of age
Parameters:
(1) CDC birth-weight z-score at birth
(2) CDC weight-or-age z-score at 6 months
(3) maternal prepregnancy body mass index
(4) maternal age in years
(5) exclusive breast feeding at 4-6 weeks (without formula or solids)
z-score change between birth and 6 months = a measure of weight gain =
= (z-score at 6 months) - (z-score at birth)
|
Exclusive Breastfeeding
|
Points
|
|
no
|
0
|
|
yes
|
1
|
X =
= (1.14 * (z-score change)) + (1.39 * (z-score birth)) + (0.1 * (prepregnancy BMI)) - (0.1 * (maternal age)) - (0.76 * (points for breastfeeding)) - 1.14
probability of obesity =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.82.
