Robson et al developed models for predicting obesity in urban Latino children. The full model has 10 predictors. The authors are from the University of California in San Francisco.
Patient selection: urban Latino child, monitored from birth to 5 years of age
Parameters:
(1) CDC birth-weight z-score at birth
(2) CDC weight-or-age z-score at 6 months
(3) maternal prepregnancy body mass index
(4) maternal age in years
(5) exclusive breast feeding at 4-6 weeks (without formula or solids)
(6) introduction of solids after 6 months
(7) any breastfeeding at 6 months
(8) first child
(9) English language proficiency
(10) sex of the child
z-score change between birth and 6 months = a measure of weight gain =
= (z-score at 6 months) - (z-score at birth)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
exclusive breastfeeding at 4-6 weeks
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1
|
|
introduction of solids after 6 months
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1
|
|
any breastfeeding at 6 months
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1
|
|
first child
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1
|
|
English language proficiency
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1
|
|
sex
|
female
|
0
|
|
|
male
|
1
|
X =
= (1.35 * (z-score change)) + (1.7 * (z-score birth)) + (0.11 * (prepregnancy BMI)) - (0.09 * (maternal age)) - (0.72 * (points for breastfeeding 4-6 weeks)) - (0.7 * (points for solid foods)) - (0.33 * (points for breastfeeding at 6 months)) - (0.5 * (points for first child)) + (0.55 * (points for English language)) + (0.57 * (points for sex)) - 1.58
probability of obesity =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.84.
