Parameters:
(1) donor age
(2) cold ischemia time (CIT) for the liver in hours
(3) UNOS status for the recipient
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
donor age
|
< 60 years
|
0
|
|
|
>= 60 years
|
1
|
|
cold ischemia time
|
< 12 hours
|
0
|
|
|
>= 12 hours
|
1
|
|
UNOS status
|
2B or 3
|
0
|
|
|
1 or 2A
|
1
|
risk score for graft failure =
= (0.97 * (points for donor age)) + (0.616 * (points for CIT)) + (0.634 * (points for UNOS status))
risk score for patient death =
= (0.652 * (points for donor age)) + (0.572 * (points for CIT)) + (0.529 * (points for UNOS status))
Interpretation:
• minimum risk score for graft failure or patient death: 0
• maximum risk score for graft failure: 2.22
• maximum risk score for patient death: 1.75
• The higher the risk score the greater the risk of graft failure or patient death respectively.
• Survival at 5 years was 75% for the minimum risk score of 0 and 20% for the maximum risk score of 1.75. Unfortunately the authors did not share the survival data for the intermediate scores.
If the relationship between scores and survival is linear (this may be a big assumption) then:
probability of 5 year survival =
= (-0.314 * (risk score for patient death)) + 0.75
